Amid sharp populist rhetoric, Remigijus Žemaitaitis is a rising political star, becoming increasingly popular in Lithuania’s rural regions. But what’s fuelling his popularity?
Žemaitaitis formed his Nemuno Aušra (Dawn of the Nemunas) party last year. For now, it is difficult to pinpoint its ideological direction, as it hasn’t yet released its election programme.
Žemaitaitis has become infamous for his anti-Semitic statements, which earned him a criminal case and cost him his seat in the Seimas. He revoked his parliamentary mandate before being officially impeached, thus preserving the option to stand for election this year.
In the eyes of some of the country’s voters, he became a victim of the system – a populist trope that he is now using successfully to rally support in the rural regions.
As Žemaitis pivots to social media, devoting considerable attention to TikTok, the other political parties are staying on the sidelines, yet sending their “spies” to attend his meetings with voters.
According to such “spies” interviewed by LRT.lt, Žemaitaitis speaks a lot about the Social Democrats and the Democrats “For Lithuania” led by Saulius Skvernelis. He accuses the former prime minister Skvernelis of being a minion of the Conservatives.
This approach has been tried and tested in the past – to undermine someone, political opponents attack them for working with the Conservatives which remain a polarising political force in Lithuania’s regions.
"Then, he usually takes a swipe at Vilija Blinkevičiūtė and Gintautas Paluckas [the Social Democratic leaders] and then he rants about Israel, Jews, Gaza, and Benjamin Netanyahu. And finally, the current issues – how the Conservatives are doing everything wrong, how they have privatised everything and so on," said a high-ranking politician from one of the leading parties in the country.
For most of his political career, Žemaitaitis belonged to the Order and Justice party. Following corruption and criminal charges, the party was liquidated and some of its members joined Artūras Zuokas, the former mayor of Vilnius, who had formed a new, Freedom and Justice, party.
"Somehow we expected a much larger number of people to join, but to our surprise, only about 400 people came,” said Zuokas. “The representatives of the Order and Justice party did not come to our party with him, apparently they did not consider him as a person to follow, a leader. This surprised us", Zuokas recalls.
Žemaitaitis took part in the 2020 elections with Freedom and Justice and won in a single-mandate constituency. The party did not pass the 5-percent electoral threshold, although Žemaitaitis was the most popular member of the party in terms of preference votes.
Zuokas argues that during the 2020 Seimas elections, the ratings predicted a good performance for the party and Žemaitaitis looked quite popular, but this did not translate into actual votes.
"I see a similar situation today. Žemaitaitis presents himself as the one who kicks the butts of the elite in Vilnius, but when people go to vote, they switch on their heads because they realise that if you kick everybody, then you cannot get along with anybody. I think it should be the same now: the ratings will not capitalise to the same extent," Zuokas said.
Vytautas Dumbliauskas, a lecturer at Mykolas Romeris University and a political scientist, says that Žemaitaitis is undoubtedly popular in Žemaitija, Lithuania’s coastal region.
"I was amazed at how popular Žemaitaitis is there,” said Dumbliauskas. "People have told me that in meetings with the voters, Žemaitaitis [insults] the Conservatives, swears from the podium, and everyone is happy.”
Data from Vilmorus, a public opinion and market research company, showed that his popularity spiked in June 2022 and then dropped at the end of the year. Up to 5 percent of people mentioned the politician as the public figure who best represented their interests.
At the time, the Seimas had decided to grant Vytautas Landsbergis the status of Head of State, which Žemaitaitis criticised relentlessly. Landsbergis was Lithuania’s first post-independence leader but had never been granted the status as the head of state, because he lost out in the first post-independence elections.
Granting him the head of state status remained a polarising issue in Lithuania. The Conservatives, currently in government, and Landbsergis are controversial topics among some members of the society.
Most of the negative sentiments focus on the socioeconomic effects of the post-Soviet transition, as well as the true or imagined arrogance.
He also amused the audience by referring to US President Joe Biden as a "bidonas" – a large liquid container – and did not shy away from other colourful comparisons.
The choice of rhetoric made Žemaitaitis appear as a fighter against the Vilnius elites. However, his asset declarations showed him to be a wealthy man – he reported owning assets and cash worth close to a million euros.
Žemaitaitis also had a chance to build his persona in various Lithuanian infotainment programmes.
"There is little pressure on him, he is given a wide range of topics to talk about, there are no arguments, and the spread of information is huge," said Rima Urbonaitė, lecturer at Mykolas Romeris University, adding that Žemaitaitis is popular in the media.
"He speaks the way people want to hear, [as] people are frustrated with politicians. Sometimes you see it even in the Seimas meetings when something is said not to colleagues, but with the idea of making it into content suitable for social networks,” said Urbonaitė.
“You could say that he has managed to find a language with a certain part of the electorate. He is in tune with their mood, but that does not mean that he has convinced them," she added.
Another strategy of Žemaitis is to harass controversial public figures. For example, in 2022, he targeted public figure Andrius Tapinas with false statements. The courts then ordered him to delete everything from his social media.
However, the merry-go-round of the courts had been slow and in the meantime, Žemaitaitis built up his popularity among people who did not like Tapinas.
The ratings of Žemaitaitis took a slump in early 2023 before spiking again following the controversy surrounding his anti-Semitic statements. It led to a prolonged affair involving courts, a move to impeach him, his subsequent departure from the Seimas and later reappearing again to run for president. He ultimately received some 132,000 votes.
Political observers noted that he used the presidential election as a platform for the upcoming Seimas elections.
According to Dumbliauskas, the political scientist, Nemuno Aušra may do well in a multi-member constituency but could stumble in a single-member constituency because the party does not have any strong single-member candidates. A similar fate awaited other smaller or populist parties in the past.
Yet, Žemaitaitis could still be the king-maker if the country had to form yet another coalition government, according to Dumbliauskas, the political scientist.
Despite the major political parties treading a careful line about working with Žemaitaitis, their position could change rapidly in their effort to get into power, Dumbliauskas added.
So far, the three parties in the current ruling coalition – the Conservatives, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement – have already declared that they would not work with Žemaitaitis.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, the current leader of the Conservatives and the foreign minister, has also called on parties to form a Lithuanian cordon sanitaire to prevent Žemaitaitis and his party from gaining power.
Ramūnas Karbauskis, head of Lithuania’s Farmers and Greens Union, called Nemuno Aušra a “cat in a bag”, while the deputy chairman of the Social Democrats said the party was just an inflated bubble that would burst after the elections.
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